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TAP Portugal: the national carrier needs privatisation to tap fresh capital


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10th October, 2014
Portugal is widely expected to relaunch the privatisation of TAP Portugal before the end of 2014, possibly offering a 49% stake and a management contract. It is likely to seek assurances on issues such as the retention of TAP's Lisbon hub and connectivity with the Azores.
Although debt is falling, TAP needs fresh equity to increase its fleet expansion options. The privatisation must ensure that the airline, and not the government, benefits from external investment. Through operating leases, TAP has grown its fleet in 2014 (the first time since 2010), but its first Airbus A350 deliveries had to be pushed out to 2017 from 2015.
The delay since the first attempt at privatisation has allowed for some improvement in financial results, but the TAP Group remained in loss at the net income level in 2013 and in 1H2014. Selling or closing loss-making activities such as the Brazil Maintenance division may help the privatisation. In this first part of our analysis, we review TAP's financial track record.
In Part 2, we will look at TAP Portugal's competitive position and its appeal to potential bidders.
TAP Portugal's 2013 group net result almost at breakeven
The TAP Portugal Group's results improved a little in 2013 over 2012 as the net result almost reached breakeven. A net loss of EUR1 million compares with a net loss of EUR32 million in 2012. Operating net income increased by 28% to EUR44 million, but this was only 1.6% of revenues. Total operating revenues grew by 1.5% to EUR2,723 million.
The parent company of the TAP Group is TAP SGPS SA, which is 100% owned by Portugal's state holding company Parpublica. The Group's principal operating company is TAP SA, which comprises the main TAP airline, the Portugal-based maintenance business (but not the Brazil-based maintenance division) and TAP Servicos (group support functions).
Other companies that are not part of TAP SA include TAP Maintenance and Engineering Brazil and TAPGER, a holding company with stakes in catering, airport shops, IT and health care services. Subsidiary Portugalia provides wet lease capacity to TAP. The group also has a minority stake in handling company SPdH.
TAP Group structure
TAP13.JPG
Source: TAP Portugal
TAP SA, the main operating company of the Group, is profitable
When the privatisation process was first launched in 2012, the TAP Group's most recent financial results were for 2011, when its net loss was EUR77 million. The improvement since then is considerable and the net result in 2013 was the closest that this perennial loss-maker has come to breakeven for several years.
The story for TAP SA is more positive. This company has reported a positive net result every year since 2009, although its operating margin has hovered only around the 2% market for the past three years.
TAP Group and TAP SA net result (EUR million) 2008-2013
Source: TAP Portugal annual reportsTAP1.JPG
Air Transport is the most important segment
Looking at the Group's results by functional segment, Air Transport contributed 90% of sales in 2013 and saw a 3.7% increase in its sales to more than EUR2.4 billion. The second biggest activity by sales was the Duty Free Shops division, whose sales grew by 5.2% to EUR163 million.
The Maintenance Portugal segment suffered a 34% drop in sales to EUR76 million, due to the difficult economic climate and competition from OEMs. Maintenance Brazil's sales grew by 5.1% to EUR75 million.
TAP Portugal Group revenues by segment (EUR million) 2012 and 2013

TAP2.JPG

 

Source: TAP Group annual reports
Heavy losses in some more peripheral divisions
In addition to being the biggest generator of revenues, the Air Transport segment also contributed the most to net income in 2013, with a profit of EUR57 million (2012: EUR21 million).
The second biggest profit generator was the Duty Free Shop, with a net income of EUR10 million, up from EUR9 million in 2012. Maintenance Portugal saw its net result fall to EUR8 million in 2013 from EUR28 million in 2012.
The result of Maintenance Brazil was a net loss of EUR40 million. This was an improvement on its 2012 net loss of EUR57 million and its 2011 loss of 67 million. This business reached the third year of its five year restructuring programme in 2013, achieving both sales growth and cost reduction.
Nevertheless, Maintenance Brazil and the segment 'Holdings and others' continued to weigh on the Group result. These loss-making activities are not part of TAP SA, the group's main operating company, and this explains why it has been profitable while the group has been reporting losses at the net income level.
Although the Brazilian MRO business is making progress, the privatisation of TAP may be facilitated by the disposal or sale of these unprofitable activities.
TAP Portugal Group net income by segment (EUR million) 2012 and 2013
TAP3.JPG
Source: TAP Group annual reports
Net debt continues its downward trend, but the balance sheet needs fresh equity
Turning to the Group's balance sheet, it has seen a progressive reduction in both gross debt and net debt in recent years. At the end of 2013, gross debt was EUR1,051 million and net debt was EUR780 million (down from EUR949 million at the end of 2012). Adding capitalised operating leases at eight times annual rental payments increases the net debt figure by more than EUR400 million to give an adjusted net debt of EUR1.2 billion at the end of 2013.
The 2013 year end gross cash balance of EUR271 million was a significant increase on the EUR85 million level of a year earlier, but was still equivalent to only 36 days of Group revenues.
Data from the state holding company Parpublica for 1H2014 show that TAP Group's net debt fell further to EUR667 million (with gross debt falling below EUR1 billion to EUR972 million) at the end of Jun-2014. The cash balance further increased to EUR306 million at the end of 1H2014, helped by the seasonal timing of the first half.
In spite of improving cash and debt balances, the Group's balance sheet continues to show negative book equity values, reflecting years of accumulated losses. At the end of 2013, the equity value was minus EUR373 million, a modest improvement on the minus EUR381 million figure a year earlier. However, this had fallen to minus EUR458 million at the end of Jun-2014, reflecting the 1H2014 net loss.
TAP's 2013 annual report comments that its financial structure is "a constraining factor relative to new investment". The fleet saw no expansion from 2011 to 2013, although TAP has procured six aircraft through operating leases in 2014. The recapitalisation of TAP Group must surely be a priority in the privatisation process.
TAP Group net debt (EUR million) 2008-2013
TAP4.JPG
Source: TAP Group annual reports
1H2014 operating loss widens, net loss narrows
TAP itself has not reported financial results for 1H2014, but the state holding company Parpublica published a 1H2014 report, in which it disclosed some details of the income statement and balance sheet broken down by activity.
Taking Parpublica data for its Air Transport activities as representing TAP, we can see that the TAP Group's sales fell by 13% year on year in the first half of this year and its operating loss widened by EUR36 million to a loss of EUR57 million. Nevertheless, its net loss narrowed by 12% to EUR82 million, thanks to lower interest costs and tax charges.
The fall in sales in 1H2014 was in spite of a 7.2% increase in passenger numbers, partly the result of new routes. In a press release, TAP reported that 1H load factor gained 3.2 ppts to reach 80.1% (which is better than the AEA average of 79.3% for the same period). The statement said that the growth rate in Europe was above the average for the airline, as was the growth in the Portuguese autonomous regions and the US.
Without full details, it is difficult to reconcile the contrasting trends of falling sales and rising passenger numbers. However, it may partly be explained by stronger traffic growth on short and medium haul than on long haul, but it may also partly reflect weaker pricing. In addition, the drop in sales may be due to lower levels of activity in the Group's non-flying segments.

 

TAP's fleet gains additional aircraft in 2014 for the first time since 2010
At the end of 2013, the TAP Group had a total of 71 aircraft, unchanged from 2010. Since then, it has been expanded by the addition of two A319s, two A320s and two A330s, all of which have entered the fleet in 2H2014 on operating leases.
According to the CAPA Fleet Database, the average age of the mainline TAP fleet is now 13.3 years, with the A340s now averaging almost 20 years. The average fleet age has risen steadily from around nine years in 2009, the result of the lack of new aircraft in the fleet.
The fleet of the group's regional airline Portugalia consists of six Fokker 100s and eight Embraer 145s, in addition to three Beechcraft operated by PGA Express (source: CAPA Fleet Database). The Beechcraft 1900Ds are to be replaced by ATR42-500s.
TAP fleet* at 31-Dec-2013
TAP5.JPG
*excludes Portugalia fleet
Source: TAP Portugal
TAP has 12 Airbus A350-900s on order for delivery from 2017 to 2020 (the start of deliveries was delayed from 2015) and is thought to be considering adding seven more aircraft to this order.
Aircraft utilisation is improving
Daily aircraft utilisation has been on a broadly improving trend for most of TAP's mainline fleet aircraft types in recent years. This has helped it to accommodate traffic growth in spite of a static fleet size.
TAP's years of no expansion in its fleet, enforced by its under-capitalised balance sheet and the lack of progress with its privatisation, have inspired it to improve its asset utilisation significantly. Not only is this visible in daily aircraft utilisation rates, but also in load factor gains (see below).
TAP Portugal daily aircraft utilisation (hours per day) by aircraft type 2008 to 2013
TAP12.JPG
Source: TAP Portugal
2013 ASKs were flat, load factor rose 2.6ppts
In 2013, TAP flew 10.7 million passengers, an increase of 5.1% over 2012. ASKs were flat, while RPKs increased by 3.4% (slower than passenger growth, reflecting the medium haul focus of the traffic growth). Passenger load factor gained 2.6 ppts to reach 79.4%, an increase of more than 12 ppts since 2008 and bringing TAP close to the average load factor for members of the Association of European Airlines in 2013 of around 80%.
As noted above, passenger numbers increased by 7.2% in 1H2014, but no further traffic details are available beyond the FY2013 data.
TAP Portugal passengers carried 2000 to 2013 (million)
TAP6.JPG
Source: TAP Portugal
TAP Portugal ASK, RPK (billion) and passenger load factor (%) 2001 to 2013 (million)
TAP7.JPG
Source: TAP Portugal
Capacity growth in Europe, reduction on South Atlantic
TAP's stable overall capacity, as expressed in ASKs, hides some variation in its capacity growth by region. In Europe (excluding Portugal), which represented almost two thirds of TAP's passenger numbers and 38% of ASKs, capacity was up by 2.8% and RPKs grew by 7.4%.
Although capacity was cut in Portugal (mainland and the autonomous regions), this only represented around 15% of passenger numbers and 4% of ASKs and so TAP's growth was skewed towards the medium haul.
The largest region of its long haul network, the South Atlantic, represented around 15% of passenger numbers and 40% ASKs, but TAP cut capacity here by 2.7%. On the Mid Atlantic, capacity was up by 3.2% and RPKs grew by 13.5%, but this region represented less than 1% of TAP's passengers and 2% of ASKs in 2013.
TAP Portugal passenger traffic data by region 2013

TAP8.JPG

 

Source: TAP Portugal
TAP Portugal scheduled RPKs by region 2013
TAP9.JPG
Source: TAP Portugal
TAP SA has managed to increase RASK faster than CASK
Focusing on the operating income performance of TAP SA, the Group's main operating company, it last reported a loss in 2008. Its profit recovery in 2009, when unit revenue (revenue per ASK, RASK) was the result of CASK falling more quickly than RASK (helped by lower fuel prices in 2009).
Since 2009, both CASK and RASK have been on a broadly upward trend, but TAP has usually managed to grow RASK at a slightly higher rate than CASK (but RASK took a slight dip in 2011, resulting in a fall in operating income).
TAP S.A. index of costs per available seat kilometre (CASK) and revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) 2008 to 2013 (indexed to 2008 = 100)
TAP10.JPG
Source: CAPA analysis of TAP Portugal annual reports
The very slight improvement in profitability in 2013, when TAP SA's operating income was 2.1% of operating revenue (up from 2.0% in 2012), was due to RASK growth of 2.9% very slightly exceeding CASK growth of 2.7%.
Bidders for TAP will be seeking higher returns
The level of profitability achieved by TAP SA is insufficient to generate value-creating levels of return on capital. If it is to break out of this range of low profitability, it will need to drive a more significant gap between RASK and CASK. Certainly, any potential bidder for TAP will need to be convinced that this is possible.
If TAP is acquired by another airline with a complementary route network and a strong brand, this could be positive for TAP's RASK and there could also be some opportunity to lower its overhead costs. Acquisition by an airline with an overlapping network would be more likely to lead to a bigger reduction in the cost base through the lowering of capacity, but this may be less attractive to the Portuguese government.
Typically, RASK is dictated by the market and, in the absence of a strategic airline investor bidding for TAP, this is less under the control of management than is CASK.
TAP is a fairly low CASK operator by European FSC standards, but not by comparison with Europe's LCCs and ultra-LCCs, whose share of the Portuguese market continues to grow. TAP will need to step up its efforts to bring unit cost down, regardless of progress with privatisation.
Unit costs (cost per available seat kilometre, USc) and average trip length for TAP Portugal and other European airlines 2013*
TAP11.JPG
*Nearest financial year end to calendar 2013
Source: CAPA analysis of airline company traffic and financial statements and press releases

 

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Interessante.

A TAP tem uma posição estratégica que eu diria, seria fantástica para uma cia do Oriente Médio como elo entre alguns lugares na Espanha e outros paises Europeus e a América Latina.

Imagino uma Qatar baseando uns 20 a 30 B788 por lá com seu custo, e conectividade com cidades médias da Espanha e Europa.

 

E o fato de que só no Brasil existem pelo menos 4 a 6 cidades que poderiam receber o serviço da TAP imediatamente.

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TAP Portugal Part 2: bidders in its privatisation will focus on the airline's Brazil network
CAPA
13th October, 2014
Savoy Capital, a potential bidder for TAP Portugal, has said that Portugal's Government "has to decide whether or not to exit the aviation business" (Dinheiro Vivo, 07-Oct-2014). Headed by ex-Continental Airlines president Frank Lorenzo, Savoy said that TAP has adopted a favourable strategy and the Lisbon hub is attractive.
If (as expected) the privatisation process is relaunched before the end of 2014, any potential bidder will need to be convinced that TAP can drive a more significant gap between its RASK and CASK in order to generate more attractive returns. Savoy seems to be the only non-airline company linked with a possible bid for TAP, for whom a strategic airline investor with a complementary route network might be the best option.
Following our recent analysis of TAP's financial performance, this second report on TAP looks at its key strategic asset: its Latin American network, in particular its operations to Brazil. We consider those airlines to whom TAP's position in this market may be of interest and so who may be preparing to make a bid in the privatisation.
TAP's finances are improving
Since the privatisation process was first launched in 2012, the TAP Group has narrowed its annual losses and its principal operating company TAP SA has modestly improved its modest profits. The group's balance sheet has benefited from some reduction in net debt, but still has a significantly negative equity value as a result of years of accumulated losses.
The privatisation process may be eased by the government relieving some of the group's debt, although this could fall foul of European rules on state aid. In addition, loss-making group activities such as the Brazil Maintenance division should not be included as part of the privatisation if possible
Benchmarking TAP's unit cost (CASK) against other European airlines, and taking account of its average trip length, shows that it is fairly cost efficient by comparison with FSCs. However, LCCs are taking a growing share of the market to/from and within Portugal and TAP's CASK remains substantially higher than theirs.
TAP's Lisbon hub attracts traffic to LatAm, especially Brazil, from around Europe
TAP's strategic focus is to use its Lisbon hub to funnel traffic from around Europe into its Latin American network, in particular to Brazil. This has seen it grow more rapidly on short and medium haul than on long haul in recent years as it seeks to supplement LatAm-bound traffic originating in Portugal with transfer traffic originating elsewhere in Europe.
This strategy is helped by TAP's being the largest airline by seat capacity between Europe and Brazil. This also builds on Lisbon's geographical advantage in being more or less on the way to Brazil from almost anywhere in Europe. However, this strategy faces some degree of threat by taking TAP more into territory that is increasingly the realm of lower-priced short and medium haul competitors.

 

Brazil network likely to be greatest attraction for bidders
TAP's long haul network is more exposed to Latin America than to any other region, In particular, Upper South America accounts for 15% of its international seat capacity. Brazil is its main destination country in the region, taking 14% of TAP's international seat numbers. Brazil represents 12 out of TAP's 15 Latin American destinations (it also has one in each of Panama, Colombia and Venezuela).
TAP's position as the leading airline from Europe to Brazil is its key strategic asset. TAP has a market share of 25% by number of seats. Second placed airline TAM has 15% of seats between Europe and Brazil, although the combination of third placed Air France and seventh ranked KLM has a share of 18%. IAG has a share of 15%, adding Iberia's 8% and British Airways' 7%, on routes between Europe and Brazil.
TAP's Latin American network, particularly its Brazil network, is the feature most likely to be of interest to potential bidders in the privatisation. It also has some niche markets in Africa, particularly Central/Western Africa and Southern Africa.
It has a strong competitive position on routes to Angola, Cape Verde and Mozambique, but Africa is a much smaller part of its network and less likely to be at the core of potential bidder interest.
TAP Portugal international seat capacity by region 13-Oct-2014 to 19-Oct-2014
TAP14.png
Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG
Monopoly on all its LatAm routes from Lisbon, but there is competition in wider market from Europe
TAP's routes Latin American routes from Lisbon are all monopolies, with no competitors from Latin America. However, its hub strategy means that these routes do not only attract traffic from Lisbon, but also from elsewhere in Europe.
Viewed in the context of the market from Western Europe to each of its 15 destinations in Latin America, there are competitors to nine of them, leaving it with a monopoly on six. Among the nine competitive routes, TAP is the leader by seats from Western Europe on five and second placed on one.
On the remaining three competitive routes (Bogota, Panama City and Sao Paulo), TAP is ranked number four or five by seats from Western Europe. Regarding two of its non-Brazilian destinations, it serves Panama City via Bogota on the outbound leg and then operates direct to Lisbon from Panama City on the return leg. There is strong competition from Western Europe to both of these cities, particularly from the Air France-KLM group and Iberia, but also from Colombia's Avianca and Lufthansa to Bogota.
Sao Paulo is the most competitive of TAP's Brazilian destinations, in terms of seats from Western Europe, with eleven other operators. TAP is only the fourth biggest operator from Western Europe to Sao Paulo, behind TAM, Lufthansa and Air France.
TAP is the sole operator from Lisbon to 12 destinations in Brazil and the leading airline from Western Europe to 11 destinations in Latin America, of which ten in Brazil. TAP's Latin American network would, therefore, mainly complement those of the other major competitors between Western Europe and Latin America.
There is also some overlap as follows: Air France-KLM (six routes), IAG (five routes), the Lufthansa Group (four routes), Condor (three routes), Alitalia (two routes) and Air Europa (two routes). Among Latin American airlines, TAP's network overlaps on one route from Western Europe with each of Avianca, Conviasa and the LATAM Group.
Greatest overlap is with Europe's Big Three
Strategic interest in TAP might be expected to be greatest from the Big Three European flag carrier groups Air France-KLM, IAG and the Lufthansa Group, all of whom would have the opportunity both to extend their presence in the Latin American market and to consider the elimination of duplicated routes that rely more on transfer traffic than on O&D demand.
Among these three, Air France-KLM has the biggest presence in South America and the greatest degree of overlap with TAP's LatAm network (AF-KLM is also the biggest European airline group in sub-Saharan Africa), but it also has the greatest financial challenges and is currently preoccupied with its own restructuring. Moreover, its relatively recent minority investment in Brazilian LCC GOL suggests that it has played its hand for the time being in this market.
It has previously been widely reported that IAG considered bidding for TAP when the privatisation was first launched in 2012, but that it decided not to proceed. As recently as Sep-2014, IAG CEO Willie Walsh said: “What appealed to us there at first glance was getting into Latin America, principally Brazil and their network in Africa. We did have some informal discussions but in the end we concluded it wouldn’t generate sufficient additional value for our shareholders and decided not to pursue it” (Arabian Business, 13-Sep-2014).
Renewed interest from IAG cannot be ruled out, particularly given the improving financial performance of Iberia and its more positive stance on the growth of the latter's long haul network, but these comments from Mr Walsh appear to make an IAG bid unlikely.
Lufthansa would want to keep TAP in Star
Lufthansa would seem to have a strong interest in retaining TAP's membership of the Star Alliance, but this could be achieved if Synergy (owner of fellow Star member Avianca Brazil) were to renew its bid. In recent years, Lufthansa has consistently resisted buying indebted, loss-making companies that are not profitable unless they have already taken significant steps to restructure (eg Swiss), the seller has contributed towards debt reduction (eg Austrian) and the price is very favourable.
Lufthansa did not make a bid for TAP in 2012, but it may be the more likely of the European Big Three to do so (if there is a threat to TAP's membership of Star). According to a number of press reports, Lufthansa executive board member Karl Garnadt has confirmed that the German airline is monitoring the situation.
Turkish Airlines could also keep it in Star
Star Alliance member Turkish has global expansion ambitions, although it has not chosen to achieve them through overseas acquisitions previously. It only has two destinations in Latin America (Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires), but has been growing its capacity quite rapidly to the region.
Turkish Airlines codeshares with TAP on some routes operated by the latter from Lisbon to destinations in Europe and Africa, but not to Latin America. Turkish may prefer to extend its cooperation with TAP through LatAm codeshares rather than an equity investment.
Among other European airlines, Air Europa may have greatest interest
Other airlines that have some overlap with TAP's Latin American network might also be interested in bidding if the privatisation process is renewed. German leisure carrier Condor operates to three TAP destinations in Latin America, but has a very different business model and is not a likely bidder. Alitalia operates to two TAP cities in Latin America, but is currently in the process of joining the Etihad Equity Alliance and does not have the resources to make an independent bid.
Spain's Air Europa, which operates from Madrid to three LatAm destinations that TAP serves from Lisbon (Caracas, Sao Paulo and Salvador), is reported to be interested in making a bid. Air Europa has been expanding its South American network in competition with Iberia and may be keen to accelerate this.
Air Europa's country manager for Portugal, José Mínguez, recently said that Air Europa parent Globalia is "in negotiations" over a possible bid for TAP (Jornal de Negocios, 22-Sep-2014). Air Europa launched a four times daily Madrid-Porto service on 06-Oct-2014, which could provide feed to TAP's three long haul destinations from Porto (Caracas, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo).
Synergy/Avianca is expected to revive its interest, but LATAM may stay away
The only serious bidder in 2012 was Synergy, the owner of the Avianca group of airlines, which includes Avianca Brazil and the Colombian airline Avianca. The bid failed as a result of technicalities surrounding bank guarantees, but Synergy's owner and Avianca chairman German Efromovich has been reported to be interested in any revival of the privatisation process. A TAP-Avianca/Synergy combination would be a positive outcome for Star as it would ensure the Portuguese carrier and its valuable Europe-Brazil network stays in Star.
Avianca Brazil could also help to provide domestic Brazilian feed into TAP's routes to Lisbon, partly replacing TAM following its exit from the Star Alliance to join new sister carrier LAN in Oneworld. TAP is also keen to work with GOL in Brazil, but the latter is not a candidate to bid for TAP.
The addition of TAP would make LATAM number three on the South Atlantic and the clear leader on Europe-Brazil
TAM is the second largest airline on Europe-Brazil and the LATAM Group is the largest Latin American player in the South Atlantic market (but smaller than the Europeans Air France-KLM, IAG, TAP, Lufthansa and Air Europa. The addition of TAP would make LATAM number three on the South Atlantic and the clear leader on Europe-Brazil. TAP's network is very complementary, particularly since the LATAM Group does not currently serve Portugal. LATAM considered a bid for TAP in the early stages of the privatisation process in 2012, but chose not to proceed.
The Gulf Three have little LatAm presence
In addition to Turkish Airlines, the three main Gulf carriers have strong global ambitions and a relative weakness in Latin America. Qatar Airways was in talks to take a stake in Spanair before the Barcelona-based airline collapsed in January 2012 and may consider an investment in TAP as a way to increase its presence in South America, where it has only two destinations currently (Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires). It is unlikely TAP would remain in Star under Qatar, which is a member of the oneworld alliance.
Emirates and TAP have a limited code-share agreement covering TAP-operated routes from Lisbon to destinations in Portugal and Spain and Emirates-operated routes from Dubai to Lisbon, Bangkok and Kualia Lumpur. However, Emirates is a very unlikely equity partner.
Etihad expressed interest in the first round of bids for TAP, which carries the Etihad code on a number of routes in Europe (and one in Africa), but CEO James Hogan was reported to have said in Oct-2012: “We are code-share partners with TAP. However strategically, we do not see any value in investing in TAP.” Etihad signed a codeshare with Air Europa early in 2014 and this seems to satisfy its need to expand its Latin American footprint, at least for now.
See related report: Air Europa-Etihad codeshare links LatAm to Asia Pacific: Etihad again challenges alliance status quo
Plenty of potential interest, this time
Our analysis suggests that there are a number of airlines that could have a real interest in TAP and TAP Portugal president Fernando Pinto has said that "three or four" groups have expressed interest in the privatisation (Dinheiro Vivo/Jornal de Negocios, 01-Oct-2014).
He has also said that TAP is in need of the capital privatisation would provide, confirming one of our conclusions in the first part of our TAP analysis.
A strategic relationship between TAP and an airline with a complementary route network could have a positive impact on TAP's traffic and unit revenues, but could be expected to keep its network largely intact. In addition, an airline partner might also be able to improve TAP's profitability through cost synergies.
By contrast, the reported interest of Savoy Capital, the only potential financial bidder that has been linked to TAP in recent media reports, may revolve more around cost reduction through cutting TAP's capacity and network.
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Pelo (pouco) que leio, a TAP vem paulatinamente melhorando seus resultados. Se não me engano atingiu um pequeno lucro operacional no ultimo exercício, inclusive. Será que é mesmo necessária a privatização da empresa? Conversando com os portugueses (estou trabalhando na TAP em CNF), todos são unanimes em dizer que não acreditam numa real necessidade de venda da empresa, agravando ao fato que o Gov. Português já vendeu praticamente tudo o que tinha.

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Thales,

 

A TAP SA (transporte de passageiros e carga, manutenção Lisboa, lojas free shop) tem apresentado lucros há vários anos. O problema está na TAP SGPS a holding do grupo que agrega a TAPME Brasil e Groundforce. No último ano a Groudforce tambám apresentou lucros.

 

No dia em que a TAPME Brasil tiver lucros, os resultados da TAP vão disparar.

 

Abraço

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Thales,

 

A TAP vem apresentando sinais muito bons - e sem depender de ajuda do Estado - o problema é no longo prazo em que não há capitais para financiar uma expansão mais ousada.

 

Mas ela terá alguns problemas a frente, a chegada das LCC´s no seu principal hub pode minar a rentabilidade dos vôos europeus.

 

O potencial dela é fantástico, imagina com os A350 e B787 ligando a América Latina com China e Japão sem passar pelo Oriente Médio. Com políticas governamentais é possível transformar LIS em porta de entrada para a Europa não só para o Brasil, mas para países como BOG, CCS e EZE.

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Eu não entendo porque ela ja não usa os A340 para China ou Japão. Falta avião à Tap.

 

Não precisa de 787 ou A350 para fazer BOG, etc, A330 da. Inclusive a Tap carece é de uns A330-300X.

 

O negócio da TP é conexão, a maioria dos pax embarcados em CNF não têm LIS como destino final, por exemplo.

 

Aqui em CNF ta correndo um boato de que a Azul negociou com a Tap os slots dos A350, confere essa info?

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A TAP está em uma situação difícil, por um lado a empresa lentamente sai do buraco e apresenta lucro, por outro Portugal continua a seguir a receita da crise.

Falta de tudo um pouco aeronaves, tripulações, mecânicos, por isso as sucessivas crises, os gestores indo e vindo de reportagens com explicações que pouco convencem o cliente.

A ME Brasil, uma aposta de risco ainda não vingou sucesso, em contra-partida, quando a ME Portugal está cheia ela alivia as necessidades da frota, se não houver uma privatização, o fluxo de caixa deve ter problemas, não há mais possibilidades de empréstimos.

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Acredito que o ideal para a Tap (e de quebra seria bom para a Star) seria o arremate pela AVB. Até porque as frotas tem similaridades e o modus operandi seria o mesmo adotado para a recuperação da AVA: deixar o Fernando Pinto lá a frente da Tap.

Agora uma dúvida em relação à TapMe: Qual a dificuldade para a Tap atrair cias para fazer a manutenção aqui?

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  • 4 weeks later...

Ora mais uma notícia...

 

Governo aprova privatização de até 66% da TAP
13.11.2014 - 14:30
O Governo aprovou, esta quinta-feira, um processo de privatização da TAP, pela alienação de ações representativas de até 66% do capital social da TAP SGPS.
ng3700852.jpg
Rui Oliveira / Global Imagens
Privatização foi aprovada, esta quinta-feira, em Conselho de Ministros

"O Conselho de Ministros aprovou o processo de reprivatização da TAP - Transportes Aéreos Portugueses S.A., através da privatização do capital social da TAP - Transportes Aéreos Portugueses, SGPS, S.A.", refere o comunicado do Conselho de Ministros.

O mesmo comunicado refere que "o processo de reprivatização do capital social da TAP será efetuado pela alienação de ações representativas de até 66% do capital social da TAP - SGPS, S.A.".

 

 

Noticia em:

http://www.jn.pt/PaginaInicial/Economia/Interior.aspx?content_id=4237910

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