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[EN] Copa Airlines poderá participar da JV entre United Airlines e Avianca

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Copa joins joint venture talks with Avianca and United


08 AUGUST, 2018 SOURCE: FLIGHT DASHBOARD BY: GHIM-LAY YEO WASHINGTON DC


Copa Airlines has been added to talks for a potential joint business involving Avianca and United Airlines, strengthening a possible partnership that would be better positioned to compete with similar tie-ups emerging in Latin America.


Avianca says in a stock exchange filing that it has been in discussions with United and Copa on the "possibility of establishing a three-way joint business agreement" which would include their combined networks between the USA and Latin America. All three airlines are members of the Star Alliance.


"At this point we can provide no assurances as to whether or when the parties will finalise the agreement," says Avianca.


Copa and United have been long-time partners, going back to the days when Continental Airlines held a share in the Panamanian airline. In 2016, Copa and United renewed their alliance for at least five years.


Copa chief executive Pedro Heilbron declines to comment further. United echoes Avianca's statement, adding that a potential partnership with Avianca and Copa would "enhance our joint networks between the United States and Latin America".


Avianca and United have been in talks for a joint venture since early 2017, but the discussions have not yet produced a deal. Avianca's choice of United as a strategic partner - reportedly over Copa and Delta Air Lines - was not without controversy.


Avianca's biggest minority shareholder took the airline and United to court in February 2017, seeking to block the proposed partnership. The lawsuit prompted a counter lawsuit from Avianca, but both sides agreed in November 2017 to drop the legal action against each other.


Airline joint venture activity is set to heat up in Latin America in the coming years, with several such partnerships in the works. LATAM Airlines Group is pursuing deals with American Airlines and IAG, while Azul is working on a joint venture with partner TAP Portugal and has also expressed interest in a deeper partnership with United.



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Se as três se unirem, vão acabar de vez com a Latam, juntas tem um produto muito superior e serviços imbatíveis

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É apenas uma JV para coordenar os preços, igual LATAM/AA e, quem sabe, entre Delta/Gol/Aeromexico.

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Copa estraga qualquer JV possível. Péssimo serviço, produto horrendo... já tive problemas graves com a KLM e mesmo assim voaria denovo, já na Copa, não voo denovo nem de graça.

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Copa estraga qualquer JV possível. Péssimo serviço, produto horrendo... já tive problemas graves com a KLM e mesmo assim voaria denovo, já na Copa, não voo denovo nem de graça.

Mas a reputacao da empresa é boa, é rentável e tem uma ótima málha

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Copa estraga qualquer JV possível. Péssimo serviço, produto horrendo... já tive problemas graves com a KLM e mesmo assim voaria denovo, já na Copa, não voo denovo nem de graça.

 

Thgrs08 , conte para nos quais problemas você enfrentou com a Copa, eu já viajei diversas vezes com ela e sempre achei que eles entregaram o que eu contratei.

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Thgrs08 , conte para nos quais problemas você enfrentou com a Copa, eu já viajei diversas vezes com ela e sempre achei que eles entregaram o que eu contratei.

 

Quais os problemas não enfrentei né? Pilotos em greve, empresa aérea fazendo o passageiro de trouxa mandando ir e voltar pra CNF quando a aeronave não tinha nem saido de PTY, não deram uma satisfação do motivo dos atrasos, não pagaram o transporte/hospedagem dos passageiros que ficaram nesse vai-e-vem, malas extraviadas e nunca encontradas, não cumprimento de serviço contratado (Não existia passagem no trecho PTY-CNF que já havia sido pago), nunca passei tanta fome na vida, não tinha um servicinho de entretenimento em voo, não queriam pagar os 2 dias de hospedagens já pagas que foram perdidas durante a greve... enfim. A Unica coisa boa foi ter tempo hábil pra conectar em PTY e fazer compras e conhecer o Canal. Acha que preciso de mais motivos pra não recomendar e não voar nela mais? E outra, não foi só uma vez que voei não e em ambas, o serviço passou longe de entregar o contratado.

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Avianca, Copa & United: Complex partnership talks
The alliance chess game in Latin America continues with Avianca, Copa and United all acknowledging their discussions about forming a three-way alliance to strengthen their respective positions between the US and Latin America.
United and Avianca have been in talks for more than year to establish a potential joint business agreement as oneworld partners LATAM Airlines Group and American work to forge their own joint venture. Azul, meanwhile, has expressed its desire to create a JV with United, and aims to forge a similar tie-up with TAP.
Given United and Copa’s deep ties, it is not surprising Copa has joined discussions with Avianca and United. Copa serves 13 US destinations, and brings the heft of its powerful connecting hub in Panama City to a potential joint venture.
Azul continues to maintain that a JV with United will materalise
Star Alliance partners Avianca and United have been engaged in talks about establishing a joint business agreement for more than a year. The discussions are against a backdrop of regional powerhouse LATAM Airlines Group working to forge joint ventures with its fellow oneworld partners American Airlines and IAG. The oneworld carriers have not yet received approvals from all countries covered under the JVs, which encompass their respective networks between Latin America and the US and Latin America and Europe.
There are a lot of moving pieces in the JV/alliance puzzle in Latin America. Avianca has expressed an interest in merging with Brazil’s third largest airline Avianca Brazil. Synergy Group is the largest shareholder of each company, but they operate separately, with some limited codesharing. Nothing has yet to materialise, but if Avianca Brazil and Avianca do merge, it creates questions over a potential United-Azul joint venture.
During 2015 United invested USD100 million in Azul for a 3.7% stake in Brazil’s third largest airline, and the two airlines forged a codeshare, covering some of Azul’s domestic flights from São Paulo Guarulhos and United’s flights from its hubs in Chicago, Houston, Newark and Washington Dulles. Earlier in 2018, United increased its stake in Azul to 8% after purchasing shares held by Hainan Airlines.
Azul has made no secret of its desire to forge a JV with United. Azul officials recently reiterated that the two companies are “absolutely working towards a US-Brazil joint venture”. Executives from the Brazilian airline explained when United made its investment in Azul before Open Skies between the US and Brazil was approved, “we kind of wrote that [a JV] in a contract that we have with them...”.
Copa brings its powerful Tocumen hub to JBA talks with Avianca and United
It remains unclear how a United-Azul JV would affect Avianca and United’s discussions, especially if Avianca and Avianca Brazil do in fact move ahead with a merger. But in the mean time, Copa has officially joined joint business talks with its fellow Star partners Avianca and United.
Predicting if the three airlines can agree on terms of joint business agreement is difficult. But it is not surprising that Copa has opted to enter into negotiations with its partners. United and Copa have a long history. At one point Continental (which merged with United in 2010), owned a 49% stake in Copa. United and Copa in 2016 opted to renew their alliance for five more years.
Copa brings a certain level of heft to the joint business discussions. It has transformed its hub at Panama City Tocumen into a major transit point between North and South America. Tocumen’s passenger numbers more than doubled from 2010 to 2017 from seven million to 15 million. Copa holds a nearly 87% seat share at Tocumen.
Panama City Tocumen passenger numbers from 2009 to 1H2018

tocpax.png

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and airport reports
Copa and Avianca offer solid coverage from Central America to South America. Copa holds a 71% seat share between Central America and lower South America. Between Central America and upper South America, Copa holds a 52% seat share and Avianca’s share of seats is 23%. (all data supplied by CAPA and OAG as of mid Aug-2018)
The three way joint business discussions among Avianca, Copa and United are covering networks between the US and Latin America. Data from CAPA and OAG show Copa operates to 13 US markets from Tocumen, and Avianca operates to 12 markets from its hub in Bogota. Avianca Peru offers service from Lima to Miami and Avianca El Salvador operates between San Salvador and Miami.
If the joint business discussions prove fruitful, Avianca, Copa and United could leverage powerful hubs in Panama and Bogota, which is home to Latin America’s third largest aviation market, Colombia.
But that would leave a network gap in Brazil, the largest air travel market in the region.
Adding Avianca Brazil to the mix would give the three partners some coverage within Brazil, but Azul’s 124 aircraft fleet is more than double the size of Avianca Brazil’s fleet of 54 aircraft. And although Azul has expanded long haul international service to the US and Europe during the last couple of years, Brazil’s domestic market represents nearly 97% of Azul’s departing frequencies (as of mid Aug-2018).
Azul international vs domestic weekly departing frequencies as of mid Aug-2018
azuldomvsintlfreq.png
Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG
How United navigates its discussions with Avianca and Azul, and the role Avianca Brazil plays in those talks is likely pertinent point in the discourse.
Complexity is inherent in shifting alliance strategies in Latin America
There is much to unfold in the changing joint venture picture in Latin America, and the latest evolution of partnerships was spurred by LATAM Airlines Group’s ambitions to create a oneworld fortress to the US and Europe.
Now the Star Alliance partners are working to respond to the changing dynamics in the region. But there are some complexities Avianca, Copa and United need to work out regarding coverage in Brazil in order to craft the right strategy to maximise value in their potential partnership.

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Embarques sentido BR-USA (ANAC)

 

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 6M18

AA 733.996 869.779 942.236 911.866 736.307 701.167 371.206

JJ 678.947 753.825 840.067 857.435 655.956 577.771 277.952

Tot 1.412.943 1.623.604 1.782.303 1.769.822 1.392.263 1.278.938 649.159

OW 68,1% 57,2% 52,4%

 

DL 316.343 346.475 390.439 348.481 290.332 354.675 184.545

G3 5.201 38.470 47.311 34.295 2.928

Tot 321.544 384.945 437.750 382.776 293.260 354.675 184.545

15,5% 15,9% 14,9%

 

UA 340.818 361.906 374.958 337.333 334.776 337.529 177.995

AD 12.507 195.402 184.968 225.459 162.626

O6 39.379 63.796

Tot 340.818 361.906 387.465 532.735 519.744 602.367 404.417

16,4% 26,9% 32,7%

 

Total 2.075.305 2.370.455 2.607.518 2.685.333 2.205.267 2.235.980 1.238.121

yoy +14,2% +10,0% +3,0% -17,9% +1,4%

 

CM 361.458 429.502 485.075 460.386 448.489 531.282 266.963

AV 129.514 149.027 146.139 160.206 177.901 198.822 122.048

tot 490.972 578.529 631.214 620.592 626.390 730.104 389.011

yoy +17,8% +9,1% -1,7% +0,9% +16,6%

 

Total 2.566.277 2.948.984 3.238.732 3.305.925 2.831.657 2.966.084 1.627.132

 

 

Muito conveniente UA querer fazer JBA com AD e O6, depois que elas roubaram pax e share da OW. Curioso pra saber de quem a G3 vai roubar pax.

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Embarques sentido BR-NYC (ANAC)



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 6M18 6M17


AA 154.116 177.055 170.659 148.159 162.141 140.063 68.854 64.639 +6,5%


JJ 192.386 211.413 228.492 222.898 159.690 130.883 59.697 69.475 -14,1%


DL 70.090 76.637 74.794 71.637 65.488 77.133 46.469 35.569 +30,6%


UA 67.070 74.187 75.462 69.213 75.867 79.991 42.363 36.852 +15,0%


G3 322 848


O6 3.369 30.766



Tot 483.984 539.292 549.407 511.907 463.186 431.439 248.149 206.535 +20,1%


yoy +11,4% +1,9% -6,8% -9,5% -6,9%



Olhando no detalhe:


AA 6M17 355 voos LF médio 63,5% 6M18 347 voos LF 69,7%


UA 180 76,5% 181 87,1%


JJ 285 85,8% 197 89,1%


DL 181 87,1% 223 83,9%


O6 177 72,6%

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Apesar de ainda ser Presidential Platinum na Copa, acredito que o modelo de negócios dela vai se esgotar em breve. Por quê? A mesma resposta de sempre... Cresceu demais sem mudar.

 

Apesar de ainda não terem concorrentes à altura, quem voa Copa com frequência (como eu) se cansa do modelo. Apesar dos "upgrades" em todos os voos, a comida é ruim, o serviço abaixo da média e o conforto muito ruim. Mas..... chega onde outras não chegam.

 

Eu não apostaria na Copa daqui a 10 anos dominando como domina hoje em dia.

 

Hora de sair da mesmice, Copa!!!!

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Apesar de ainda ser Presidential Platinum na Copa, acredito que o modelo de negócios dela vai se esgotar em breve. Por quê? A mesma resposta de sempre... Cresceu demais sem mudar.

 

Apesar de ainda não terem concorrentes à altura, quem voa Copa com frequência (como eu) se cansa do modelo. Apesar dos "upgrades" em todos os voos, a comida é ruim, o serviço abaixo da média e o conforto muito ruim. Mas..... chega onde outras não chegam.

 

Eu não apostaria na Copa daqui a 10 anos dominando como domina hoje em dia.

 

Hora de sair da mesmice, Copa!!!!

 

Por enquanto o modelo continua dando muito certo.

 

6M18 CM LF 83,2%, Faturamento 1,349.1 milhões de dólares, Lucro líquido 186.4 milhões de dólares, Margem líquida 13,8%.

AV 82,9% 2,367.7 Prejuízo líquido 32 -1,4%

AD 81,2% 1,249.5 Lucro líquido 130.9 10,5%

G3 79,4% 1,551.6 Prejuízo líquido 343.8 -22,2%

 

 

https://copa.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/copa-holdings-reports-net-income-499-million-and-eps-118-second

 

http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001575969/a5f128e4-4936-4bdc-9f6e-265aa78140ba.pdf

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Semana que vem voarei Copa novamente totalizando 9 trechos esse ano. Ano passado voei outros 4 e me incomoda muito as conexões muito curtas ( frequentemente gerando problemas) e a falta de padrão das aeronaves quanto ao IFE.

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Preço, marketing e/ou qualidade dos serviços? "as campeãs" em aumento de pax no último semestre.

 

(corrigindo)

AD 6M17 96.801 pax 6M18 162.626 +68,0% + 65.825 pax

O6 1.567 63.973 +3.982% +62.406

AA 319.930 370.477 +15,8% +50.547

JJ 278.468 301.017 +8,1% +22.549

UA 160.224 177.995 +11,1% +17.771

CM 253.749 266.963 +5,2% +13.214

AV 110.861 122.048 +10,1% +11.187

DL 174.881 184.545 +5,5% +9.664

 

Segundo a Aerocivil da Colômbia, 17,2% dos pax da AV com origem no Brasil fizeram conexão para EUA (+/- 21 mil), nos 6M18.

 

http://www.aerocivil.gov.co/atencion/estadisticas-de-las-actividades-aeronauticas/bases-de-datos

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Vejo que geralmente a AV está batendo de frente com o preço da CM.

O que vocês preferem? São ambas Star Alliance.

Já voei nas duas até os Estados Unidos.

Achei o produto da AV melhor, mesmo no A330 antigo. Nem se compara no 788. O serviço é latino americano nos dois casos.

Eu prefiro BOG a PTY.

 

Ponto negativo: pode ter sido um caso pontual, mas houve um atraso bem grande - 8 horas - no BOG-LAX devido atraso do vôo anterior, vindo de MAD.

A CM parece ter uma operação mais eficiente e os vários vôos diários meio que ajudam na reacomodação em caso de IRROPs.

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Ainda sobre a CM, na coletiva sobre os resultados o 2º trim, eles falam em reduções na oferta para o Brasil em vários destinos, de setembro até o final de novembro (low season). Não estão contentes com o RASM, excesso de oferta, etc.

Ainda não vi nada (redução) além de POA.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4197863-copa-holdings-s-cpa-ceo-pedro-heilbron-q2-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=5

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GIG vão cancelar 2, depois 1 vps, em algumas semanas de setembro e outubro. W18 ainda não saiu pra ver novembro.

 

H CM215 25MAR27OUT 1200567 16073H 1430PTYPTY J
H CM215 28MAR20SET 0034000 16073H 1430PTYPTY J
H CM215 10OUT24OUT 0030000 16073H 1430PTYPTY J esse volta
H CM215 11OUT11OUT 0004000 16073H 1430PTYPTY J só nessa data

 

CNF também cancelamentos pontuais em algumas datas de out (dias 2, 4 e 9)

 

HCM0765 CM0764 25MAR27OCT 1030567 16073H PTYPTY0330 0430PTYPTY JJ
HCM0765 CM0764 27MAR25SEP 0200000 16073H PTYPTY0330 0430PTYPTY JJ
HCM0765 CM0764 05APR27SEP 0004000 16073H PTYPTY0330 0430PTYPTY JJ
HCM0765 CM0764 11OCT11OCT 0004000 16073H PTYPTY0330 0430PTYPTY JJ
HCM0765 CM0764 16OCT16OCT 0200000 16073H PTYPTY0330 0430PTYPTY JJ
HCM0765 CM0764 23OCT23OCT 0200000 16073H PTYPTY0330 0430PTYPTY JJ
BSB normal
CM0205 CM0204 25MAR27OCT 1234567 16073H PTYPTY0305 05150PTYPTY JJ

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United Airlines: Latin America turmoil makes JV timing ‘hard to predict’

August 22, 2018


United Airlines president Scott Kirby stated he expects to secure a JV with three Latin American carriers in the “not so distant future”, however the turmoil in Latin America makes things “complicated” and “hard to predict an exact time” (Reuters, 21-Aug-2018). The airlines include Avianca, Copa Airlines and Azul.



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